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The Real Deal on the AL Cy Young RaceBaseball Betting Lines09/07/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With 28 days left in the regular season, the American League Cy Young award is still up for grabs. It seems the New York Yankees' CC Sabathia is considered the leading candidate, although I think there's another pitcher who has been head and shoulders above the entire field. There has been a lot of debate on how closely a pitcher's win total should be considered in the Cy Young voting, with contender Felix Hernandez having only 11 victories at this point. I think the story behind Hernandez having so few wins, despite his tremendous numbers otherwise, is really the untold story so far. Hernandez is pitching for one of the worst offensive teams in the history of the game, and that has had a major impact on his win total. Once you examine the numbers, it doesn't take much to see that "King Felix" has clearly been the best pitcher in the AL. To me, it's a no-brainer. The Mariners are on pace to score the fewest runs in a season since the inception of the designated hitter in 1973. Seattle is averaging 3.2 runs per game, and actually has produced almost those very same numbers (3.1) in Hernandez's starts. What this basically means is that if you're in the Seattle rotation, you can't allow more than two runs in a typical start if you hope to get a win. As a matter of fact, the Mariners haven't scored more than three runs in their last eleven games. In further researching how tough it is to compile victories with this atrocious offense, it turns out that in games where the opposition scored at least four runs, the Mariners are an unheard of 6-64. When you look at all the facts, how can you logically penalize Hernandez for his win total, when this pathetic excuse for a major league lineup (team averages: .236 BA, .300 OPB, .340 SLG) is the direct reason for it? Yankees fans are so concerned about Derek Jeter's poor season (.264 BA, .331 OBP, .373 SLG), but his numbers are better than seven players in the Mariners lineup, and his 60 RBI would make him Seattle's team leader. My top three candidates for the AL Cy Young in order are Hernandez, Sabathia, and David Price. With the exception of wins, Hernandez leads these two competitors in every other major pitching category. Here's how they stack up: Wins: Sabathia 19, Price 16, Hernandez 11 ERA: Hernandez 2.30, Price 2.92, Sabathia 3.02 WHIP: Hernandez 1.09, Sabathia 1.20, Price 1.24 BAA: Hernandez .219, Price .230, Sabathia .239 OBP: Hernandez .279, Sabathia .303, Price .306 SLG: Hernandez .318, Price .355, Sabathia .359 IP: Hernandez 219.1, Sabathia 202.2, Price 172.2 CG: Hernandez 5, Sabathia 2, Price 2 SO: Hernandez 209, Sabathia 165, Price 161 K/9: Hernandez 8.58, Price 8.39, Sabathia 7.33 K/BB: Hernandez 3.48, Sabathia 2.44. Price 2.40 BB: Hernandez 60, Sabathia 65, Price 67 BB/9: Hernandez 2.5, Sabathia 2.9, Price 3.5 H/9 Hernandez 7.3, Price 7.7, Sabathia 7.9 To further highlight how run support has played such a major role in this race, let's take a look at some eye-opening numbers on that subject. Sabathia: 29 starts. Run support: 176. Average runs per start: 6.06 Price: 26 starts. Run support: 129. Average runs per start: 4.96 Hernandez: 30 starts. Run support: 95. Average runs per start: 3.16 Starts in which their team scored at least 5 runs: Sabathia 18, Price 15, Hernandez 7 Starts in which their team scored three runs or fewer: Hernandez 15, Price 8, Sabathia 4 Record in starts allowing a maximum of 3 earned runs: Sabathia 17-3 (3 no- decisions), Price 16-4 (3 no-decisions), Hernandez 11-7 (8 no-decisions). Aside from win total, there is also the argument that Hernandez is under a lot less pressure pitching for a last-place team in Seattle than either Sabathia or Price, who are playing under the microscope for contenders. But based on what King Felix has done against the Yankees this season, I have a lot of trouble giving credence to that argument. He went into Yankee Stadium twice and completely dominated the defending world champs. In his first start, he threw a complete-game 2-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts. He followed up that performance with eight scoreless innings and another 11 strikeouts. And in his start against the Yankees in Seattle in front of a rare, near-sellout crowd, he pitched a complete game (126 pitches), allowing one run along with nine strikeouts. As far as pitching under pressure, Hernandez, unlike his two competitors, goes to the mound every game knowing there is no margin for error. He's had to be near-flawless to get his 11 wins. His ERA in those games is a phenomenal 0.82. He's had nine no-decisions this season despite allowing a total of 14 runs in those games and pitching to a 1.91 ERA. Hernandez has pitched three games this season in which he's had a three-run lead after five innings, while Sabathia has been in fourteen such games. And Hernandez has been involved in eleven games where he had a three-run cushion at one point, while Sabathia has had that lead in twenty games. CC has the luxury of being in a lot more games in which every pitch doesn't count and one mistake can be very costly. And why is anybody assuming Hernandez would crack under the pressure of playing in a big market for a contender? This hasn't affected the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester. So what evidence is there that Hernandez wouldn't thrive also? Another argument in the Sabathia-Hernandez debate is that the Yankees play in the much tougher AL East, where wins are harder to come by. But the people that make that argument fail to look at the overall competition each pitcher has faced. They also leave out the fact that the weakest team in the AL West by far is the Mariners. And as far as I know they don't get to play themselves. In that same breath, CC never has to face the team with the best lineup in baseball, because he plays for them. Within his own division this season, Sabathia has three starts against the Rays, four with the Red Sox, four versus the Orioles (pre-Buck Showalter) and none against the Blue Jays. The only other playoff contenders he's faced are the Rangers, Phillies, and White Sox, having started one game against each of them. While Sabathia has had ten starts against top-level teams, Hernandez has significantly more with fifteen. King Felix has faced the Yankees (3 games), Rangers (4 games), Twins (2 games), White Sox (2 games), Padres (2 games), Red Sox (1 game), and Reds (1 game). Sabathia is 5-1 with four no-decisions and a 3.52 ERA in those ten games. In his five wins the Yankees averaged eight runs per game and scored at least five runs in each of those starts. Hernandez is 7-5 with three no-decisions and a 2.41 ERA in his starts against playoff contenders. King Felix had two defeats and one no-decision where he gave up two earned runs in seven innings. And he had another no-decision in which he pitched eight scoreless innings. And while we're mentioning how many tough opponents each pitcher has faced, shouldn't we mention the cupcakes too? Sabathia has eleven starts against the AL's four worst teams, while Hernandez only has six. Sabathia is 4-0 against the Orioles, 3-0 versus the Mariners, 2-0 against the Royals and 0-1 versus the Indians. Thus, nearly half of his 19 wins have come against some of the worst teams in baseball. Hernandez has two starts each against the Orioles, Indians, and Royals. His combined ERA for those six games is 1.00, but he managed to go only 2-2. You have to wonder how you can pitch that well against such weak competition and come away with those results. Would you believe that darn run support issue was the problem in the two losses? The Mariners scored one run in each of those two games. In the two wins Hernandez notched, the M's exploded for four runs in one game and three in another. And in the two no-decisions, the bullpen decided to sabotage two excellent performances by Hernandez. He gave up one run in seven innings to the Orioles and left with a 5-1 lead, only to see Brandon League come in and give up five runs in the eighth. In the other no-decision, he pitched seven innings again, giving up two runs, and left with a 4-2 lead. But League blew another potential win for Hernandez by giving up two runs. The bottom line here is that Felix Hernandez's season is a microcosm of the Mariners season. Seattle is third in the AL with a team ERA of 3.83 but is in last place in the West with a dreadful 54-84 record. The Yankees, meanwhile, are fifth in team ERA at 3.88, but sit atop the AL East with the major's best record at 86-52. It can't be any more obvious that runs do matter when it comes to winning games, especially when the case is this extreme, and Hernandez should not pay a price for it in the Cy Young vote. I think he's clearly been the best pitcher in the league and the numbers don't lie when he beats his closest competitor in every major statistical category besides wins. Sabathia has had a terrific season, and, to me, is the Yankees MVP. But when you clearly examine the whole story in the Cy Young race, it's clear that "King Felix" should be crowned the winner.
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SPORTS BETTING - Tennis is an underrated and under-utilized bettors' sport.Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?" A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook. In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small. "Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets." But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?" Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year. This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here. Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions. In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries. No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning. And that's all any bettor can ask for. To visit this sports book go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
Sportsbook Betting LinesWho Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. “You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. “The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). How the Opening Line Is MadeThe opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades. Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line. Why Sports Betting Lines ChangeOnce the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.” To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds. |
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